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DOE Pulse
  • Number 412  |
  • April 28, 2014

Bioenergy crops resilient to climate change, grain not so much

Bioenergy crops can have a prominent role in reducing carbon emissions in energy production.

Bioenergy crops can have a prominent role
in reducing carbon emissions in energy
production. Image courtesy of
Creative Commons License
.

To understand the most effective path to reduce the amount and speed of climate change, scientists are funneling world economic, energy and ecosystem data into integrated assessment models to come up with possible futures. Without a model-based analysis, it would be difficult to gauge the extent that possible emission mitigation strategies are themselves vulnerable to climate change. For instance, a robust agricultural sector will be necessary for a transition toward an energy system that is more reliant on bioenergy and less on fossil fuels. However, if agriculture is strained by climate change, such a transition may not be effective for reducing emissions. In this research from DOE’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, scientists are solving those puzzles, piece by piece.

The study closed a loop of inter-model comparisons conducted in the past five years, in which models of different disciplines passed information among each other to generate a coherent picture of the future. Taking into account complexities of interactions among the human and natural systems, the researchers used the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), developed at PNNL with long-term support from DOE's Integrated Assessment Research Program. This integrated assessment model takes into account all sectors of the economy in producing possible ramifications of proposed climate mitigation strategies. GCAM used the yields from a global gridded crop model, which in turn used the climatic outcomes of a global climate model, which in turn used the future greenhouse gas emissions from integrated assessment models, of which GCAM was one.

The researchers found negative biophysical climate impacts for major grain crops, particularly in tropical regions. This held strong particularly in scenarios with high emissions and a high degree of climate change. However, bioenergy grass crops look resilient to climate change. This resiliency means that agricultural climate impacts do not pose a serious threat to pursuing greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, which likely will partially rely on bioenergy crop production and use.

“Grass crops grown for bioenergy appear to be resilient to climate change, which is good news for mitigation efforts that may rely on bioenergy crop production and use,” said Page Kyle, research scientist at PNNL, working at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland.

Even with climate impacts, the research shows there is still a prominent role for bioenergy in emissions mitigation. However, the climate impacts on grain production will nevertheless require adaptation measures such as increased trade or changes to management practices. Though the study does not assess the uncertainty bounds, which are likely to be large, it develops a method for conducting this type of analysis that will likely prove useful to other researchers. The research is continuing as the scientists strive to eliminate the need to run a global gridded crop model to analyze yield impacts.

The research was supported by DOE’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Integrated Assessment Research Program.

[Kristin Manke, 509.372.6011,
kristin.manke@pnnl.gov]