Call for Abstracts

ABSTRACT SUBMISSION DEADLINE: 02 September 2010 - 23:59 EDT (More Information)

Call for Abstracts at the 2010 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union:
Sessions on Climate Extremes, Uncertainty and Hydrologic Impacts

GC24:Characterization, Prediction and Attribution of Weather and Hydrological Extremes with Changing Climate

Sponsor: Global Environmental Change; Co-Sponsors: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrology, Nonlinear Geophysics, Natural Hazards, Public Affairs

Description: A significant knowledge-gap relevant for policymakers and stakeholders remains the inability to produce credible assessments of climate-related extremes. Incremental progress in climate science is not expected to keep pace with the urgency of stakeholder requirements. However, increasing resolutions of climate models, continuing improvements in the statistical characterizations of extreme events, as well as recent advances in data-guided methods for predictive modeling with uncertainty quantification and attribution techniques, offers the hope of significant and imminent breakthroughs. This session solicits abstracts with novel methods, new climate insights or innovative case studies.

Invited Speakers: David Easterling (NOAA / NCDC); Noah Diffenbaugh (Stanford University); Claudia Tebaldi (Climate Central); Aurelie Lozano (IBM Research)

Conveners: Auroop Ganguly (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Michael Wehner (Lawrence Berkeley)


NG06:Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Systematic Evaluation of Climate Models and Data-Guided Enhancements of Regional Climate Projections

Sponsor: Nonlinear Geophysics; Co-Sponsors: Atmospheric Sciences, Global Environmental Change, Hydrology
Description: Regional climate predictions especially at decadal scales remain a major acknowledged gap in climate science. The premise that higher-resolution climate models can reduce uncertainty in projections of regional climate variables remains a plausible hypothesis that needs to be tested. The stakeholder community cannot afford to wait for drastic improvements in long-standing climate science challenges, especially given the urgency of decisions and the high cost of both action and inaction. This session solicits abstracts with novel methods for uncertainty quantification and/or data-guided enhancements of climate model simulations.

Invited Speakers: Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore); Steve Sain (NCAR); Roger Ghanem (USC, LA); Garder Johannesson (Lawrence Livermore)

Conveners: Auroop Ganguly (Oak Ridge National Laboratory), Dean Williams (Lawrence Livermore), Charles Doutriaux (Lawrence Livermore), Habib Najm (Sandia)


H63: Assessing Uncertainty in Coupled Global Circulation - Hydrologic Models

Sponsor: Hydrology; Co-Sponsors: Global Environmental Change

Description: The use of global circulation model (GCM) output in hydrologic models results in the propagation of uncertainty (i.e., cascading uncertainty) across theses models due to many factors including data sources, physics, numerical and computational requirements. Downscaling of GCMs and input into hydrologic models has provided an effective tool to assess the impacts of climate change at basin scale, providing estimates of water deliverability to water managers, planners and stakeholders. This session will focus on new methods, insights and case studies for decision makers as to how to consider these uncertainties when using GCMs and hydrologic models.

Invited Speakers: Upmanu Lall (Columbia University); Francis Chiew (CSIRO, Australia); David Blaney (CDC, Atlanta); Glenn Higgins (Northrop Grumman)

Conveners: Glenn Tootle (UTK), Auroop Ganguly (ORNL), Thomas Piechota (UNLV), John Drake (UTK)


ABSTRACT SUBMISSION DEADLINE: 02 September 2010 -- 23:59 Eastern Daylight Time For more information: